Role of SCO in Afghan Peace: GS: 2 "EMPOWER IAS"

 

 

In news:

• On the face of it, the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) this week in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, is well placed to lead the stabilization of Afghanistan after the American retreat.

 

 

 

What is SCO?

• SCO is a permanent intergovernmental international organisation.
• It’s a Eurasian political, economic and military organisation aiming to maintain peace, security and stability in the region.
• It was created in 2001.
• The SCO Charter was signed in 2002, and entered into force in 2003.
• It is a statutory document which outlines the organisation's goals and principles, as well as its structure and core activities.
• The SCO's official languages are Russian and Chinese.

 

Genesis

• Prior to the creation of SCO in 2001, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan were members of the Shanghai Five.
• Shanghai Five (1996) emerged from a series of border demarcation and demilitarization talks which the four former Soviet republics held with China to ensure stability along the borders.
• Following the accession of Uzbekistan to the organisation in 2001, the Shanghai Five was renamed the SCO.
• India and Pakistan became members in 2017.

 

Membership

• Kazakhstan
• China
• Kyrgyzstan
• Russia
• Tajikistan
• Uzbekistan
• India
• Pakistan

 

Observer states

• Afghanistan
• Belarus
• Iran
• Mongolia

Dialogue Partner

• Azerbaijan
• Armenia
• Cambodia
• Nepal
• Turkey
• Sri Lanka

 

Objectives

• Strengthening mutual trust and neighbourliness among the member states.
• Promoting effective cooperation in -politics, trade & economy, research & technology and culture.
• Enhancing ties in education, energy, transport, tourism, environmental protection, etc.
• Maintain and ensure peace, security and stability in the region.
• Establishment of a democratic, fair and rational new international political & economic order.

 

India’s and the SCO

• India and Pakistan both were observer countries.

• While Central Asian countries and China were not in favor of expansion initially, the main supporter — of India’s entry in particular — was Russia.
• A widely held view is that Russia’s growing unease about an increasingly powerful China prompted it to push for its expansion.
• From 2009 onwards, Russia officially supported India’s ambition to join the SCO. China then asked for its all-weather friend Pakistan’s entry.

 

Afghanistan and SCO

• Afghanistan has been engaged with the SCO for over 15 years.
• In 2012, Afghanistan became an observer in the SCO when then-Afghan president Hamid Karzai visited China.
• In 2015, Kabul applied for full membership in the group.
• Kabul sought to be a member of the SCO as it believes that it is a natural candidate.
• Geographically, Afghanistan is a part of the SCO region.

 

Limited (or No) progress made by SCO

• For all the political hype, the SCO has not deepened regionalism in Central Asia.
• Two decades after its formation — it was set up just weeks before the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington — the institutional promise of the SCO remains just that — a promise.
• Seen from the subcontinent, the SCO certainly looks better than the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
• That India and Pakistan, whose differences have prevented even regular meetings of SAARC, are actively participating in the SCO, would point to its attractiveness.
• But then SAARC is such a low bar.

 

Opportunities for role-play in Afghanistan

The crisis in Afghanistan presents a major opportunity for the SCO to realize its regional ambitions.

• Involvement of regional superpowers: The SCO’s importance for Afghanistan seems self-evident when you look at its sponsors and members. Its founding leaders are the two great powers of the east — Russia and China.
• Neighborhood are members: Its other initial members were Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan to the north and northeast of Afghanistan.
• Observers vested interest: Besides Afghanistan, Iran, Belarus and Mongolia are observers. Iran is said to be on track for full membership.
• Many dialogue partners: The SCO has a number of “dialogue partners”. They include Armenia and Azerbaijan from the neighboring Caucasus region and Turkey a step further to the West. Nepal and Sri Lanka from the subcontinent and Cambodia from southeast Asia are also dialogue partners.

 

Issues with SCO

• China centrism: For an organization that bears the name of Shanghai, but is focused on Central Asia, its associates look disparate.
• Lack of coherence: The Central Asian members of the SCO have quarrels of their own, and have struggled to develop collective approaches to their common regional security challenges.
• Dint go beyond dialogues: As it broadened its membership, the SCO has, unsurprisingly, struggled to deepen institutional cooperation.
• Not comprehensive: There is also one important country missing in the mix. It is Turkmenistan, which shares an 800 km border with Afghanistan and a 1,150 km border with Iran.
• Neutrality of members: The organizing principle of Turkmenistan rulers is absolute “neutrality” — think of it as an extreme form of “non-alignment”. It refuses to join any regional institution, political or military.
• Individual interests: Russia’s effort to build a regional institution in its Central Asian periphery ran parallel to its plans for the so-called “strategic triangle” with China and India. India and Pakistan, needless to say, are poles apart on the Taliban.

 

Russian alternatives to SCO

(1) Central Security Treaty Organisation

• While military confidence-building measures have grown under the SCO banner, Russia had its own security organisation for the region, called the Central Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
• Three of the SCO members — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan — along with Armenia and Belarus are members of the CSTO.
• Russia sees itself as the sole protector of the former Soviet Republics and may not be ready to share that role with China — “yes” to coordination, but “no” to a Sino-Russian security dyarchy.

(2) Eurasian Economic Union

• Moscow also appears reluctant to back Chinese proposals to promote trade integration under the SCO banner; it prefers the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) under its own leadership.
• China is not a member of either CSTO or EAEU. This is one reason for the weakness of SCO regionalism.

 

India’s Interest in Afghanistan

• Economic and Strategic Interest: Afghanistan is a gateway to the oil and mineral-rich Central Asian republics.
  • Afghanistan's main advantage is its geography, as anyone who is in power in Afghanistan controls the land routes connecting India with Central Asia (via Afghanistan).
• Developmental Projects: The massive reconstruction plans for the country to offer a lot of opportunities for Indian companies.
   
  • Three major projects: the Afghan Parliament, the Zaranj-Delaram Highway, and the Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam (Salma Dam), along with India’s assistance of more than $3 billion in projects, hundreds of small development projects (of schools, hospitals and water projects) have cemented India’s position in Afghanistan.
• Security Interest: India has been the victim of state-sponsored terrorism emanating from Pakistan supported terrorist group operating in the region (e,g. Haqqani network). Thus, India has two priorities in Afghanistan:
  • to prevent Pakistan from setting up a friendly government in Afghanistan, and
  • to avoid the return of jihadi groups, like al Qaeda, which could strike in India.

 

What can the SCO do now?

• The Afghanistan debacle presents an opportunity for the SCO to play a constructive role in meeting the region’s burgeoning security challenge.
• Providing humanitarian relief, tending to refugees, facilitating an inclusive dialogue and national reconciliation constitute immediate and long-term goals in which the organization can fill a role.
• The SCO can also pressure the Taliban to share power with other domestic actors and refrain from providing sanctuary to foreign terror organizations (through foreign funds from Saudi*).
• It can suspend Afghanistan’s observer status, curtail border traffic or withhold recognition, investments, and aid, should Kabul be found wanting.

 

Way forward

• While the SCO is not an impressive regional institution, it remains an important diplomatic forum.
• India has sought to make full use of the SCO’s diplomatic possibilities without any illusions about its effectiveness.
• At the SCO summit this week, PM Modi would remind other leaders of the “three evils” that the SCO set out to defeat — terrorism, extremism, and separatism.
• Few would disagree that the Taliban embodied all the three sins in the past. Today, the Taliban and its mentor Pakistan say the sinner wants to become a saint.
• India must focus on finding common ground with those members of the SCO who do share India’s concerns about Afghanistan.