Importance of Afghanistan in regional strategic matrix "EMPOWER IAS"

 

In news:

• The article highlights how players at 3 levels: global, regional and local level influence Afghan dynamics.

 

Strategic significance of Afghanistan for India:

1. Natural resources: Afghanistan is known for its geo-strategic importance and abundance of natural resources. Afghanistan has an estimated 1 trillion USD of untapped resources according to a joint report of The Pentagon and US Geological Survey. Stable Afghanistan with better relations means more economic development in the region and of India.
2. Security: A stable Afghanistan is crucial for regional and domestic security and stability for India. With Afghanistan becoming a centre of radical ideology and violence again, such a development would affect Pakistan and would inevitably reach India. Further, there is threat of drug trafficking through the Afghanistan route. Peaceful Afghanistan is thus a necessity to reduce the threat to internal security of india.
3. Connectivity: Afghanistan is always considered as India’s gateway to Central Asia. It implies continental outreach. For instance, connectivity with Afghanistan and further with Central Asia have been primarily the reasons for India’s engagement with Iran to develop Chabahar port. Similarly, Delaram-Zaranj highway is an important route to connect Indian economy via Afghanistan.
4. Strengthening regional foothold: Increasing strategic engagements with Afghanistan combination is beneficial for India in strengthening a foothold in the region. For example, India’s relations with Iran at present are dominated by oil. Diversification of engagements would strengthen India’s relations with Iran and other countries.
5. Energy ambitions: To address its energy needs to sustain its economic growth, pipelines from Iran and Central Asia would be extremely important. India sees Afghanistan as an essential component of the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline. An unstable Afghanistan would hurt the construction of this pipeline and the subsequent flow of gas.
6. Trade: In case of trade, Afghanistan can help India export its products to Europe, gaining foreign exchange. The railway line from Chabahar to Zahedan in Afghanistan envisages to connect New Delhi with Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia and Europe.

 

Role of global powers in Afghanistan

1) What the US exit from Afghanistan mean

• The exit of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan underlines the end of the unipolar moment in international affairs.
• Ending US military involvement, however, does not necessarily make Washington marginal to the future evolution of Afghanistan.
• The US remains the most significant global power even after the end of the unipolar moment.
• Its ability to weigh in on multiple issues is considerable.
• President Joe Biden is under some pressure at home not to be seen as abandoning Afghanistan.
• Nor can the US President ignore the dangers of Afghanistan re-emerging as a breeding ground for international terrorism.
• The US will figure prominently in any Taliban strategy to win international diplomatic recognition and political legitimacy.

• It will also need Western economic assistance for stabilising the war-torn country.

 

2) Russia’s role in Afghanistan

• Russia is determined to play an important role in the future of Afghanistan.
• As a member of the UNSC, the joint leader of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation with China, and a major source of weapons, Russian clout is real.
• Above all, Putin brings plenty of political will to compensate for Moscow’s loss of superpower status as we have seen across the world, from Venezuela to Myanmar and Mozambique to Syria.

 

3) How China will benefit from the US withdrawal

• If the US is a distant power, China is Afghanistan’s neighbour.
• Unlike Russia, China can deliver massive economic resources to Afghanistan under the umbrella of the Belt and Road Initiative.
• China’s expanding relations with the different nations of the Gulf and Central Asia and a deep partnership with Pakistan lends much potential depth to Beijing’s role in Afghanistan.

• Both Kabul and the Taliban have seen China as a valuable partner in the pursuit of their divergent interests.
• Beijing has often talked of extending the China Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan.
• However, China is vulnerable to the extremist politics of the region that fan the flames of religious and ethnic separatism in its Xinjiang province.

 

Regional powers influencing Afghan dynamics

• One of the biggest concern about the Afghan future is the kind of influence Islamic radicals might regain in the country under Taliban rule and its consequences for the subcontinent, Central Asia, and the Middle East.
• Pakistan and Iran, which share long physical borders, have had the greatest natural influence on land-locked Afghanistan.
• When the Taliban ruled Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were the only countries other than Pakistan to recognise the government-run by its leader, Mullah Omar.
• They have taken a back seat in the current round of Afghan diplomacy, but would certainly return to the centre stage sooner than later.
• Meanwhile, bold Qatar and ambitious Turkey have injected themselves into the Afghan jousting.

 

Various implications of recent Afghanistan deal for India:

1. Jeopardize India’s present stake: For India, the signing of the US-Taliban deal may jeopardize its present stake in Afghanistan if the Afghan government is side-lined moving forward. Since 2002, India has developed significant influence with the Afghan government through trade, cultural and diplomatic links, and foreign aid.
2. Legitimise model of terrorism: Afghan government may cede a degree of legitimacy and power to the Taliban which would legitimise model of terrorism and have serious danger for peace and spread of terrorism.
3. Reduce strategic capabilities: India has maintained that any peace process in Afghanistan must be Afghan-led and Afghan-owned, and that the democratically elected government in Kabul must be given priority. A Taliban led deal would reduce India’s strategic capabilities especially in Afghanistan region.
4. Fresh fuel for anti-India terrorist groups: An Afghanistan ruled by Islamic extremists like the Taliban, might provide fresh fuel for anti-India terrorist groups operating in Jammu and Kashmir, which would take cues from the Taliban in increasing their activities.
5. Risk to India’s security: Post-peace deal, India’s security intelligence would be impacted. Afghan intelligence, for instance, reportedly provided India with intelligence for the targets of the India Air Force’s Balakot airstrikes against a reported JeM terrorist camp linked to the Pulwama attack.