Clashes erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

News:

Clashes erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the volatile Nagorno-Karabakh region, reigniting concern about instability in the South Caucasus, a corridor for pipelines transporting oil and gas to world markets.

Highlight:

• Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region that is inside Azerbaijan but is run by ethnic Armenians, declared martial law and mobilised their male populations.
• Armenia said Azerbaijan had carried out an air and artillery attack on Nagorno-Karabakh.
• This is a decades-old conflict between majority Christian Armenia and mainly Muslim Azerbaijan.
• Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan in a conflict that broke out as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
• Though a ceasefire was agreed in 1994, after thousands of people were killed and many more displaced, Azerbaijan and Armenia frequently accuse each other of attacks around Nagorno-Karabakh and along the separate Azeri-Armenian frontier.

History of Dispute:

• Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan in a conflict in 1991.
• It is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts, which are de facto controlled by the self-declared Republic of Artsakh, but are internationally recognized as de jure part of Azerbaijan.
• A ceasefire was agreed in 1994, after thousands of people were killed and many more displaced, Azerbaijan and Armenia frequently accuse each other of attacks around Nagorno-Karabakh and along the separate Azeri-Armenian frontier
• The conflict has its origins in the early 20th century.
• Under the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin decided to make the Nagorno-Karabakh region an autonomous oblast of Soviet Azerbaijan.
• The present conflict began in 1988, when the Karabakh Armenians demanded that Karabakh be transferred from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s.
• A ceasefire signed in 1994 provided for two decades of relative stability, which significantly deteriorated along with Azerbaijan’s increasing frustration with the status quo, at odds with Armenia’s efforts to cement it.
• A four-day escalation in April 2016 became the deadliest ceasefire violation to date.
• Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region that is inside Azerbaijan but is run by ethnic Armenians, declared martial law and mobilised their male populations.
• Armenia said Azerbaijan had carried out an air and artillery attack on Nagorno-Karabakh.
• Pipelines shipping Caspian oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan to the world pass close to Nagorno-Karabakh.

 

Impact of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict:

• In this disputed region, there are hundreds of civilian settlements, residents of which would be directly impacted and potentially displaced if any large-scale war were to break out between the two countries.
• Any military escalation would draw regional powers like Turkey and Russia more deeply into the conflict.
• Russia has closer ties with Armenia while Turkey and USA support Azerbaijan, and Iran has a large Azeri minority, which could escalate a crisis and entangle actors involved. Any military escalation would draw regional powers like Turkey and Russia more deeply into the conflict.
• There is also the question of the network of oil and gas pipelines and strategic roads which access might be blocked or interrupted. 
• Renewed tensions threaten to reignite a military conflict between the countries and destabilize the South Caucasus region. This may cause social unrest in the region which is already suffering from the Covid-19 pandemic.
• For both nations, these would create immediate challenges and war would not be in the interest of both countries.

Dynamics in the India’s geoplitik:

• India- Armenia: In recent years, Indian-Armenian bilateral cooperation has seen rapid growth.
• The then Vice-President of India visited Yerevan (Armenia) in 2017.
• Armenia bought the India SWATHI military radar system in March 2020.
• Many Indian students study in Armenian medical Universities and in recent years Armenia has witnessed an increasing flow of Indian labour migrants.
• For Armenia, close relations with India are vitally important as India provides a counter balance to the rival strategic axis between Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey.
• India-Azerbaijan: India is part of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multimodal network of ship, rail, and road route for moving freight between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe.
• Azerbaijan is a dialogue partner of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which India is a member of.
• India has supported Armenia while Azerbaijan has been supported by Pakistan. Pakistan was the second country to recognize Azerbaijan’s independence after Turkey. Also, Pakistan is the only country that does not recognize Armenia as an independent state and fully supports Azerbaijan’s position.
• China has grown increasingly active in the caucasian region, conducting a number of programs and signing economic, political and military agreements with Armenia. Armenia has also agreed to participate in the Chinese Belt and Road project.
• However, China is an ally of its rival Azerbaijan and Armenia is also aware of its support to Pakistan.

Way Forward:

• The conflict between the two countries has reached alarming levels and the international mediators should intervene immediately and push sides for substantive negotiations to prevent any further escalations.
• Growing Pakistan- China-Turkey’s influence in the south caucasus region is a source of concern for India. It is important for it to strengthen its ties with both the countries in line continuing its non-aligned stance, and call for peace in the region.

Nagorno-Karabakh - key facts

• A mountainous region of about 4,400 sq km (1,700 sq miles)
• Traditionally inhabited by Christian Armenians and Muslim Turks
• In Soviet times, it became an autonomous region within the republic of Azerbaijan
• Internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but majority of population is ethnic Armenian
• An estimated one million people displaced by 1990s war, and about 30,000 killed
• Separatist forces captured some extra territory around the enclave in Azerbaijan in the 1990s war
• Stalemate has largely prevailed since a 1994 ceasefire
• Russia has traditionally been seen as an ally of the Armenians