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‘No First Use’ nuclear policy GS:2 - International Relations EMPOWER IAS

 

‘No First Use’ nuclear policy

 

 

Mains Question

 

Q) India’s new political discourse on revisiting its nuclear doctrine has once again attracted transnational debate on the efficacy of no first use policies. In the light of the statement, critically evaluate India’s nuclear doctrine.

 

 

Table of Content

  1. In news
  2. Background
  3. India’s nuclear doctrine and its components
  4. No first use policy(NFU)
  5. Advantages of NFU
  6. Debate over utility of "No first use policy"
  7. Main features of India’s nuclear doctrine
  8. Reason for calls to revisit the nuclear doctrine:
  9. Factors militating against revisiting our nuclear doctrine:
  10. Way ahead

 

In news:

  • Recently,  Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said till now India's nuclear policy is 'No First Use'. The comments come in the midst of heightened tensions between India and Pakistan after revoked of Article 370 from J&K.

 

Background:

  • India’s new political discourse on revisiting its nuclear doctrine has once again attracted transnational debate on the efficacy of no first use policies, despite the fact that India has repeatedly recapitulated that it is amenable to negotiate no first use treaties.
  • India has put in place its nuclear doctrine with NFU and massive retaliation forming its core tenets soon after it tested nuclear weapons in 1998.
  • India’s official nuclear doctrine is codified in a 2003 document, which takes cues from the 1999 draft doctrine. 
  • Since 2003, India’s nuclear doctrine has had three primary components:
  • No First Use: India will only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack on Indian Territory, or Indian forces. A caveat is made about their possible use in response to a chemical or biological attack.
  • Massive Retaliation: India’s response to a first strike will be massive, to cause ‘unacceptable damage’. While the doctrine doesn’t explicitly espouse a counter-value strategy (civilian targets), the wording implies the same.
  • Credible Minimum Deterrence: The number and capabilities of India’s nuclear weapons and delivery systems should merely be sufficient to ensure intolerable retaliation, also keeping in mind first-strike survival of its relatively meagre arsenal.
  • The concept of maintaining a minimum credible deterrence and a nuclear triad for delivery of nuclear weapons based on aircraft, missiles and nuclear submarines flow from this doctrine.
  •  India has strictly adhered to this doctrine. 

What is "No first use policy"?

  • The fundamental purpose of Indian nuclear weapons is to deter the use and threat of use of nuclear weapons by any State against India and its forces.
  • India will not be the first to initiate a nuclear strike, but will respond with punitive retaliation should deterrence fail.
  • India will not resort to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons against States which do not possess nuclear weapons, or are not aligned with nuclear weapon powers.
  •  States with such pledges would be technically able to still use nuclear weapons first in a conflict.

Advantages of NFU:

  • It minimises the probability of nuclear use.
  • It enhances the possibility of containing the crisis before the point of no return when miscommunications, misjudgement, misperception or the fog of war may force either power to go first.
  • NFU for India also presents an opportunity for cooperation with China to work jointly towards a Global No First Use (GNFU) order.
  • There is considerable convergence regarding the belief of nuclear weapons being restricted to the political realm.
  •  India, therefore, should take the lead on seeking a GNFU policy instead of creating doubts about its own adherence to it.

https://blog.forumias.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/advantage.jpg

Debate over utility of "No first use policy"

  • There is a widespread debate whether Government should revise and update” India’s nuclear doctrine and consider revoking India’s pledge of no first use (NFU) of nuclear weapons.
  • There are some issues related to the utility of “No First Use Policy of Nuclear weapons” considering the structural factor which has diluted its relevance such as.
  • India’s policy of credible minimum deterrence also raises questions, as it has to deal with two nuclear armed adversaries with different postures and capabilities. 

Main features of India’s nuclear doctrine:

  • Establishing and maintaining a credible minimum deterrent.
  • ‘No First Use’ is integral to India’s nuclear doctrine
  • Nuclear retaliation to be designed to inflict “unacceptable damage”.
  • Such a nuclear retaliatory attack can be authorized only by civilian political leadership through the Nuclear Command Authority
  • No use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states
  • India to retain option of retaliating with nuclear weapons in the event of a major attack against it with biological or chemical weapons;
  • Continuance of strict restrictions on the export of nuclear and missile-related materials and technologies.
  • Continued commitment to goal of nuclear weapon free world, through global, verifiable and non discriminatory disarmament.

 

 

Reason for calls to revisit the nuclear doctrine:

  • lack of confidence in our deterrent and in our willingness to resort to the use of nuclear weapons.
  • increasing evidence of Pakistan’s proclivity to use tactical nuclear weapons against us,
  • China’s threat: India's nuclear threat environment consists of two countries with vastly different nuclear postures.
  •  China espouses a doctrine similar to India’s that of 'assured retaliation', with a small number of nuclear weapons and an arsenal designed to survive a nuclear first strike.
  • Both India and China are the only nuclear weapon states with a No First Use (NFU) policy.
  • China espouses a limited, ‘unacceptable’ strike on civilian targets, and not 'massive retaliation' like India.
  • Despite the NFU pledge, India is naturally concerned about Chinese strides in technologies like the DF-17, a hypersonic glide vehicle platform designed to render missile defence redundant, among others. 

 

  • Pakistan:
  • Pakistan utilises a combination of proxy warfare (support to terrorist groups) and the threat of nuclear weapons to offset India’s superior capabilities in conventional warfare.
  • It makes no claims to No First Use, and depends completely on its nuclear deterrent to safeguard its strategic goals.

 

 

Factors militating against revisiting our nuclear doctrine:

 

  • It would enormously complicate and increase the expenditure incurred by us in regard to our command and control mechanisms which would have to be reconfigured to engage in calibrated nuclear war fighting.
  • It would weaken the possibility of our engaging in conventional warfare insulated from the nuclear overhang.
  • It would encourage the use of tactical nuclear weapons against us under the illusion of no massive response.

 

 

Way ahead:

  • India must frame amend its Foreign policy and strategic affairs on the basis of a country’s long-term national interests.
  • It is the right time for India to revisit the existing framework and articulate and advocate for an international consensus to draft a new policy taking into account the geopolitical changes in South Asia.
  • Robust Command and Control System
  • Effective Intelligence and Early Warning Capabilities
  • Need for operational preparedness

 

Source)

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/unclear-doctrine/article29127566.ece